D6 May Be Only Competitive Race
San Francisco voters are angry. Voters overwhelmingly recalling three School Board members and on June 7 will very likely remove the District Attorney. But there will likely be only one seriously contested supervisor’s race in November and that is for a seat without an elected incumbent. Consider:
Catherine Stefani in D2 is a lock for re-election (though she could be appointed District Attorney if the recall succeeds, which would create an open seat). Rafael Mandelman in D8 and Shamann Walton in D10 also face no serious opposition.
Nor, perhaps surprisingly, does Gordon Mar in D4. Many thought his 2018 victory was a fluke based on a very weak opponent. But like his brother Eric (who served two terms as D1 supervisor), Gordon Mar’s political skills are underrated. Mar respectfully treats those who disagree with him. He has not taken a single vote that has galvanized district opposition against him.
Some housing advocates are unhappy with Mar over his vote against 469 Stevenson and his views on other housing issues. But a YIMBY candidate cannot beat Mar this November. Mar is likely the most pro-housing candidate D4 could elect in 2022—we’ll see if the political landscape around housing in the Sunset changes in four years.
It’s still possible for a well-funded opponent against Mar to emerge. But that this hasn’t happened says that others recognize that Mar would be tough to unseat.
Dorsey v. Mahogany
The chief competitive race this November is between appointed D6 Supervisor Matt Dorsey and challenger Honey Mahogany. Matt Haney urged the mayor to appoint Mahogany. He has publicly said he is turning his own electoral operation over to his former aide’s campaign.
Recent mayoral appointments to the Board have not fared well. The worst decision of Mayor Ed Lee’s tenure was choosing Julie Christensen over Cindy Wu to replace David Chiu in D3. I told the mayor that failing to appoint Wu would bring Aaron Peskin back to the Board; I was right.
Lee’s other appointments—Christina Olague in D5 and Jeff Sheehy in D8—also lost. Olague’s campaign was rocked by her opposing Lee’s decision to terminate Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi; Sheehy always faced an uphill fight against Rafael Mandelman, who stayed connected with voters after losing to Scott Weiner in 2010.
Breed’s appointment of Vallie Brown to replace her as D5 Supervisor seemed like a good choice. Brown only narrowly lost to Dean Preston in a district where he had run before and likely better fit his politics. But Brown is another mayoral appointee to the Board who lost.
Can Dorsey break this trend? It’s still early but he’s better positioned than any of the prior losing appointees. Here’s why.
The New D6
The current D6 is more moderate than in past elections (which is why in the redistricting process some wanted it to include the Tenderloin and shift parts of SOMA to other districts). Its voters are more concerned with public safety. Matt Dorsey’s police connections help him here. He is also very pro-housing and has a long history of political relationships from his own activism and years as spokesperson for former City Attorney Dennis Herrera.
Honey Mahogany rapidly moved from Matt Haney’s aide to the head of the San Francisco Democratic Party. She has a loyal activist base and would be the first transgender person to serve on the Board of Supervisors. Haney will do whatever he can to elect Mahogany. But I think Mahogany faces a tough fight.
All of the losing mayoral appointees to the Board above had a name recognition gap. For Christensen and Sheehy it was huge. D5 Supervisor candidate London Breed was as least as well known as Christina Olague. That race had the mayor’s people turning against their appointee so the role of name recognition is unclear. Dean Preston had run against Breed and had at least equal if not higher name recognition than Vallie Brown.
I think Dorsey is at least as well-known to D6 voters as Mahogany. Mahogany is far better know nationally—she appeared in the fifth season of RuPaul’s Drag Race — but not sure how much that helps in D6. A lot of D6 voters are just getting acquainted with city politics and do not know much about either candidate.
Mahogany’s Campaign
How will Mahogany frame her campaign? Will she run to the left of Dorsey by criticizing his connection with the SFPD? That could be costly in the more pro-police D6.
Will she strongly criticize the Board’s rejection of housing at 469 Stevenson the way Haney did during his Assembly race? Many of her supporters opposed the project. I also think, based on the Assembly outcome, that most D6 voters supported the housing.
Can Mahogany attract voters unhappy with Mayor Breed? I haven’t seen Breed’s approval numbers in D6 but criticism I’ve heard about the mayor in that district concerns her failure to stop open drug dealing. Her appointment of Dorsey was widely praised by those sharing this concern.
This is very different from the Preston-Brown race in D5. Preston argued that Brown was too moderate and too connected to the mayor for the district. I can’t see Mahogany beating Dorsey by running solely to his left and against Breed. There are ways she could run to both his right and left and potentially win but it requires e a very nuanced campaign.
We’ll soon see how Mahogany works to overcome these challenges. Dorsey has the advantage of connecting to constituents as the incumbent, and the budget process allows him to deliver benefits to D6 voters.
Much can change before November. But from today’s perspective the San Francisco electorate is on track to keep the current Board in place in November.
