The first Republican presidential primary is months away, but the outcome is now clearer. The GOP is heading for a Marco Rubio- John Kasich ticket. It combines outsider and insider politics with candidates that can best help the GOP win the key states of Florida and Ohio (which Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008 and 2012).
Former and current favorites Jeb Bush and Donald Trump will not be nominated.
Jeb Bush, the supposedly “smarter” son of George H. W. Bush, has been exposed as an intellectual lightweight. The grassroots GOP base is done with this generation of Bush’s and will not accept Jeb as nominee.
Donald Trump is unlikely to even enter a primary.
Trump’s Fear of Failure
On September 29, 2015 NY Times columnist Joe Nocera predicted that Donald Trump would “be out” of the race before Iowa. Nocera writes, “All his life, Trump has had a deep need to be perceived as a “winner.” He always has to be perceived coming out on top. That’s why, ultimately, I don’t think he’ll ever put himself at the mercy of actual voters in a primary. To do so is to risk losing. And everyone will know it.”
I agree with Nocera’s analysis and would go a step further. Trump’s desperate need to be seen as a “winner” has led him to repeatedly misrepresent his wealth and economic track record. Trump has been able to muddy the facts around these, but a defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire would give him no room to spin.
Today, Trump can describe himself as the master of politics. But a poor finish in the primaries exposes him as an apprentice.
Winners know how to quit when ahead. If Trump leaves the race before he is formally defeated, he can always say that he could have won. He knows he is not going to be the GOP nominee and is likely already looking for an exit strategy.
Rubio’s Strength
Marco Rubio is the only GOP candidate with both inside and outside support. He has performed well enough in the debates to refute the common perception of him as not ready to be the presidential nominee.
When this race began Rubio was seen as likely to be on the 2016 ticket, but most likely as the vice-presidential nominee. But the failure of Scott Walker and Jeb Bush, and John Kasich’s lack of outsider support, has left Rubio as the favorite to the presidential nominee.
Rubio also represents a “new generation” of Republican leadership. This fits a grassroots base eager for change. Rubio more closely resembles the George W. Bush of 2000 than the long list of older white men favored by Republicans in every presidential election since Thomas Dewey’s nomination in 1948.
Rubio also brings ethnicity to an overwhelmingly white Party. He is the only GOP candidate capable of winning non-Cuban Latino voters (not that he will win many).
Ohio Governor John Kasich is a better qualified presidential nominee, but lacks “outsider” credentials. He is a consummate insider who went from Congress to Wall Street to the Ohio governor’s office. Kasich looks like every other prior Republican nominee for the past sixty-plus years, and the GOP prefers a new look.
Kasich balances Rubio’s lack of experience much as Joe Biden did for Barack Obama. He is an obvious choice for VP.
Political Strength
A Rubio-Kasich ticket gives the GOP its best chance to win Florida and Ohio. Since 1944 Ohio has only backed the losing presidential candidate once—Richard Nixon in 1960 (though it also went for Bush in 2000, who lost the popular vote and absent Supreme Court chicanery would have lost the White House).
Kasich was easily re-elected as Governor and has a statewide political operation that would help the national ticket. But his selection as VP nominee would not guarantee that Ohio goes red in 2016.
John Kerry only lost Ohio to Bush by 2% in 2004, and that was impacted by the notorious voter suppression tactics of Ken Blackwell, Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State. Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by a 53-45% margin in the 2008 primary, and if she is the Democratic nominee this is a state where she has shown strength.
Rubio’s ability to win Florida is unclear. The state is always a battleground. Then Florida Governor Jeb Bush did everything possible to secure Florida for his brother in 2000 and yet it took ballot flaws, the throwing out of Gore votes and all the other craziness that year for the state’s electoral votes to go Republican.
After a primary campaign dominated by non-politicians like Trump, Ben Carson and Fiorina, the Republican Party will go with elected officials who give it the best chance to win. That’s why Rubio-Kasich will get the nomination, while Trump goes on to sign more lucrative hotel, condo and television deals than ever before.
Randy Shaw is Editor of Beyond Chron. He is also the author of the new book, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
