Next year, District 8 Supervisor Bevan Dufty will face re-election. On the conservative side of issues ranging from tenants’ rights to economic justice, Dufty seems like a likely target for unseating by the city’s left. Dufty could also be vulnerable, winning his seat in a race most said he would have lost had ranked-choice voting been in effect, as well as running in a district where Matt Gonzalez soundly defeated Gavin Newsom in 2003’s mayoral contest. Yet with less than a year until campaigning begins, clear progressive alternative candidates have yet to emerge, leaving many both curious and concerned that Dufty will avoid a serious challenge.
When Dufty entered office three years ago, many considered his victory a lucky one. Opponent Eileen Hansen defeated Dufty in the general election, only to lose in the run-off election after her campaign committed major gaffes that cost her of votes. Because third-place progressive candidate Tom Radulovich also received a substantial amount of votes in the general election, many argued that had ranked-choice voting (RCV) existed, Hansen would have won easily. In fact, RCV proponents used the race as a case study for the need of such a system.
Yet now, potential progressive candidates remain hesitant to throw their hat in the ring for 2006, leaving the impression that many don’t see Dufty as vulnerable as they once thought he would be. And it may not just be calculations about Dufty’s vulnerability that’s causing reticence – it could also involve an effort by some to preserve a perceived growing unity among San Francisco’s historically fractious queer community.
Gonzalez’s defeat of Newsom by 10 percentage points in 2003’s run-off election for Mayor seems like substantial proof that District 8, which includes the Castro and Noe Valley, represents a progressive group of voters willing to buck centrist Democrats.
However, Newsom’s legalization of gay marriage likely won over a large percentage of those voters. Dufty has increasingly positioned himself as a close mayoral ally, appearing at a variety of public events alongside Newsom and voting with the mayor’s interests on most important issues. While Newsom has proved in the past with losing candidates such as Lillian Sing and Heather Hiles that he has short, if any, coattails, a Newsom endorsement of Dufty in D8 could prove influential.
Dufty’s record on the Board may be more difficult to overcome. Dufty proved the crucial vote in the battle over Trinity Plaza, casting a vote against legislation preserving the hotel from demolition that allowed Mayor Gavin Newsom to veto it. Over the years, Dufty has consistently introduced legislation that would make converting rental housing into Tenancy-in-Commons easier, which, if passed, would have reduced rental housing in a district where the large majority of voters remain tenants. Finally, on almost every contentious issue during past budget seasons, from bike races to hotel taxes, Dufty has stood with downtown interests.
On the other hand, on social issues concerning transgender equality and gay rights, Dufty remains a solid vote, confining his conservative side to tenant issues and issues surrounding economic equity. This has led some to argue that an all-out war with Dufty could unnecessarily divide the queer community, which some say has been showing signs of a burgeoning unity, particularly between the Harvey Milk and Alice B. Toklas Democratic clubs.
Others disagree. Long-time tenants rights and queer activist Tommi Avicolli-Mecca, for example, says, “There’s never been unanimity in the queer community, and there never will be.we come from all over, every race, every ethnicity, and if we don’t challenge the status quo, we don’t move forward.”
Avicolli-Mecca says he has been approached by a variety of progressive activists encouraging him to run. He says while he’s considering their requests, he’s still trying to keep his options open, and may or may not end up throwing his name into the race. Should he run, he’d likely earn the support of a legion of tenant activists, including Mission Agenda’s Richard Marquez, who calls Avicolli-Mecca “a fierce and loyal fighter for justice.”
Transportation for Livable City’s Radulovich also finds his name circulating as a possible progressive candidate. Despite encouragement to run from environmental and transit advocates, Radulovich remains undecided about the race. Should he run, he’d have the benefit of experience running a campaign in District 8 and against Dufty, as well as a strong track record of environmentalism.
Noe Valley Democratic Club president Rafael Mandelman has also been considered a possible candidate. Mandelman’s connections to the vote-rich Noe Valley community could provide him with a substantial base from which to launch a campaign. In addition, his status as an active member of the Harvey Milk club could help his chances at obtaining their important endorsement. Mandelman, however, remains non-committal as to whether he’ll actually run or not.
Other than these three, many activists and insiders haven’t heard of any other likely candidates. Whether this can be attributed to a lack of people willing to run for office, a perception of Dufty being unbeatable, or an attempt at healing political divides amongst queer people remains to be seen. As the time to begin campaigning for the race nears, expect debate around all three issues, as well as around the names already circulating, to heat up considerably.
