The contest to replace Matt Gonzalez in District 5 includes four strong candidates who would serve the district well. Bill Barnes, Robert Haaland and Ross Mirkarimi have all served as Supervisors aides, while Lisa Feldstein has worked for the Mayor’s Office and served on the Planning Commission. Given the experienced field and the candidates similar views on many key issues, how should voters make their choice in this race?
We hope to begin answering this question with a series of candidate profiles beginning next week. While in past years June would be much too early to focus on a Supes election, the candidates for District 5 are already working to secure endorsements and raise funds.
The logic behind such early campaigning is the importance of achieving front-runner status in a thirty candidate field Early endorsements from influential groups and individuals also legitimate candidacies and attract money and media attention.
But mistakes can also be made in the rush to secure early support. Negative campaigning has already begun in District 5, a risky move in a race where ranked voting—in which the first place votes of losing candidates are distributed to the voters second and third choices– will determine the outcome.
It may well be unprecendented to see four extremely well-qualified progressive candidates running in the same district race. In 2000, Matt Gonzalez and Agar Jaicks were the only two major progressive candidates in District 5. Chris Daly, Aaron Peskin, Tom Ammiano and Jake McGoldrick were the only major progressive candidates in their districts in 2000, and faced little competition for progressive endorsements or support.
So how are voters to choose among District 5’s leading progressive contenders?
One factor could to be the candidate’s political party. Gonzalez became a Green during his election campaign and went on to become the Green Party’s most successful national political figure. Will District 5 voters want to elect a Green to the nonpartisan seat, or will a district that will vote overwhelmingly for John Kerry also prefer a Democratic Supervisor?
If loyalty to Party becomes a critical factor among candidates perceived to have similar views, then Democrats (and elected DCCC members) Barnes and Haaland have the edge. If District voters instead prefer the independence from the local Democratic Party demonstrated by Gonzalez, then Feldstein and Mirkarimi will benefit.
Surprisingly for a district race, none of the four leading candidates are neighborhood leaders. But despite their citywide focus, look for the candidates to try to separate themselves around their stances on specific district issues.
Due to redistricting, District 5 is less progressive than in 2000 and Republicans now outnumber Greens. Both Willie Brown and Gavin Newsom won citywide elections with Republican support, and GOP votes could decide this race as well. The candidates presentations to the Republican Party Endorsement Committee should prove interesting.
In focusing our coverage on the four top-tier candidates, we have the flexibility to add other candidates who emerge as potential contenders. We realize that by initially focusing on only four candidates we can be accused of deferring to conventional wisdom, but we happen to agree with the near universal assessment that these are the four with the most viable campaigns.
We will not be endorsing a candidate, which we hope enhances the credibility of our coverage.
If our profiles omit critical facts that would impact voters perceptions of a candidate, please let us know.
