Our Five Year Housing Scorecard
Five years ago this week I released Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America via the University of California Press (the updated paperback came out in April 2020). I believe it was the first book that criticized progressive, “blue” cities for exclusionary housing policies. I went beyond the racial causes of exclusionary zoning to blame older generations of homeowners for denying housing options for the new working and middle-class.
Today, the YIMBY groups I wrote about are stronger than ever. Single-family zoning has been eliminated in many cities and a few states. ADU’s and “missing middle” homes are being legalized. Homeowners’ profit motive in restricting housing supply is widely acknowledged. Parking minimums are being abolished. The media across the nation (outside of the Seattle Times) urges cities to build a lot more housing.
But housing shortages still price out younger generations in blue cities. More work needs to be done.
Here’s my update on the progress— or lack thereof — in the over a dozen progressive cities I write about. Starting alphabetically with Austin.
Austin
My chapter on Austin saw the city split over upzoning and building more apartments. In December 2018 election victories by pro-housing forces led to a citywide rezoning that would have made a huge difference. Unfortunately, a court threw out the new zoning in 2020 and this was upheld on appeal.
But Austin YIMBY’s have never given up. Progress on upzoning has recently been made. Last week, Austin became the largest city in the nation to ban parking minimums for housing. AURA (An Austin for Everyone), whose leadership on housing policy I discuss in my book, will host the next YIMBYTOWN on February 26-28.
Berkeley
Never did I imagine in criticizing Berkeley in Generation Priced Out that it would go from fiercely anti-housing to unleashing a housing boom in less than five years. What changed? The 2020 elections brought a pro-housing council majority. Elections really matter on housing.
Boulder
After years of local government controlled by anti-apartment zealots, voters rebelled in the 2019 and 2021 elections. The extreme anti-renter occupancy restrictions I describe in my book have been overturned. Boulder is moving in the right direction. Thanks to @EricMBudd for regularly tweeting on Boulder’s progress and for the dedicated work of Bedrooms are for People.
Cambridge
I wrote about how Cambridge activists turned city housing policy from exclusion to inclusion. Cambridge has proved one of the most successful cities in the past five years. The pro-housing group A Better Cambridge has won key council elections. In 2020 it passed an Affordable Housing Overlay that opened up four story apartment buildings citywide.
On October 15, 2023 the council expanded and strengthened the AHO by making more sites across the city available for affordable housing and increasing the allowed density. Cambridge and Berkeley are two of the big blue city successes over the past five years. Both cities also can count on strong statewide pro-housing organizations (Abundant Housing Massachusetts and California YIMBY) and have very pro-housing governors.
Denver
Denver has seen progress but not at the rate activists desire or the city needs. Much of the housing debate in Denver involves homelessness, as the city joins others in seeing a worsening crisis.
Los Angeles
I did not realize until researching Generation Priced Out that my home city of Los Angeles has long been the NIMBY capital of blue cities. A pro-immigrant city fails to provide the housing immigrants (and others) need.
In my book I described the strong homeowner opposition to a campaign to build housing for the homeless on a parking lot in Venice.I’ve since been following the project. Despite strong support from prior Mayor Garcetti and current Mayor Bass, the Venice Dell Community project has still not broken ground.
The Los Angeles Times editorial board wrote on July 30, 2023, “Twice — in 2021, then 2022 — the City Council approved a development agreement that allows the developers to have site control and apply for funding. They already have $6.3 million from the city, federal housing rental vouchers, and a commitment of Los Angeles County Measure H dollars to cover case management services for the formerly homeless residents.”
No wonder Los Angeles has the nation’s worst homeless problem.
Since council races were aligned with state and national elections, a more pro-housing council has emerged. But despite the best efforts of Abundant Housing LA and other groups, YIMBYs still lack a council majority. The city’s extreme housing shortage has not meaningfully improved in the past five years.
Minneapolis
In December 2018 Minneapolis got national headlines for becoming the first city to end single-family home zoning. Subsequent progress expanding the size of new apartments followed. In 2021 Minneapolis voters approved a rent control ordinance, which I explain in my book is a critical step for all high-priced cities.
New York City
Political support for upzoning New York City is the strongest in decades. Open New York is building a powerful YIMBY movement But powerful homeowner groups still find ways to stop housing (and block pro-housing reforms at the state level).
I wrote about a 123-unit project in the upscale Nolita neighborhood that was earmarked for 100% affordable housing in 1983. It took until 2012—nearly thirty years!— for the planned affordable senior housing to move forward. Efforts by the “progressive” Village neighborhood to stop seniors from being housed have been relentless. They even attacked Habitat for Humanity, a key figure in the Haven Green project.
As with the Venice project, I assumed when my book was released that the path to completion was clear. But the trial court overturned the council’s approval and after the project was reinstated by a unanimous vote of the appellate court the state’s highest court recently decided to review it.
Haven Green’s delays show why so many New York City seniors face housing insecurity.
Portland
My chapter on Portland foresaw its ending single-family zoning and opening many lots to as many as eight units. Portland’s land use successes have been overshadowed by its worsening drug and homelessness crises but the city has made meaningful strides toward inclusion since 2018.
San Diego
When my book came out in 2018 the YIMBY Democrats of San Diego had just been formed. Since that time San Diego has elected pro-housing politicians to the mayor’s office, the state legislature, and the local council. Progress is steady.
San Francisco
My book traces San Francisco’s anti-housing policies from the 1970’s. These policies have largely continued to this day with one major development: new state legislation passed in 2023 that could soon effectively prevent supervisors or planning commissions from killing projects. The key bills were sponsored by Supervisor Scott Wiener, elected by San Francisco voters.
I recently described how economic factors make it unlikely that San Francisco will see much housing built in the near future despite new state laws (See “Is SF On the Verge of a Housing Boom?” October 23, 2023). In housing, timing can be everything.
Seattle
My Seattle chapter contrasted its pro-housing policies with those of San Francisco. A key reason is that its Planning Commission does planning; it does not decide if projects get built. Nor does its council, unlike the political process impacting housing in San Francisco.
Seattle does build a lot more housing but also has powerful homeowner groups that still prevent building apartments in their neighborhoods. These neighborhoods have to be opened up for new apartments for the city’s reputation for inclusion to survive.
Big Picture
My book preceded an avalanche of articles, books, editorials and forums in the past five years making the case for cities to build more housing. Pro-housing forces have won the public debate. But we are still not seeing most cities sharply ramping up housing construction.
I hope when I write about the tenth anniversary of Generation Priced Out that such building will have occurred. The next generations of the middle and working-class deserve no less.
