There was much to learn from Tuesday’s election results, and while some politicians and constituencies deserve to be gleeful, others are not thrilled with the lesson. The biggest surprise in San Francisco was the failure of the city’s progressive forces to mobilize voters. This led to the defeat of the anti-violence measure, Prop A, and to a surprisingly close victory for the eviction protection measure, Prop B. Leland Yee and Fiona Ma won far more easily than expected, and Mayor Newsom and Supervisor Chris Daly each had mixed results. But the overwhelming winner on Tuesday were African-American and progressive voters in the East Bay, where the fabled Ron Dellums machine won an Assembly seat for Sandre Swanson and, pending a final count, the Oakland mayor’s office for Dellums.
Rarely has a San Francisco election seen so little variation between the absentees and the final results. When Prop B was ahead in the absentees, I assumed it would get at least 57% rather than the 52.5% it ultimately received. Similarly, when Prop A received 49.5% of the absentees, passage appeared assured.
This is what happens when you have historically low voter turnout. Prop A’s defeat also spoiled my otherwise correct election predictions.
The Losers
1. Nevin, Reilly and BMW—The June 6 election should spell the end of Mike Nevin and Janet Reilly’s political careers. Nevin funneled a fortune to the BMW political consulting group (Barnes, Mosher, Whitehurst) and did far worse than expected. Mosher and Whitehurst love crowing about victories, and likely have already figured out a way to absolve them of blame for Nevin’s defeat.
2. Tony Hall— Hall was a huge backer of Prop D (Laguna Honda), which got killed on the Westside. Sean Elsbernd need not worry about a recall challenge from Hall.
3.Matt Gonzalez — He endorsed Prop D as well as Janet Reilly. This may have won him some isolated Westside support, but his endorsement did not appear to positively sway voters in either contest.
4.The San Francisco Chronicle— It tried and failed to defeat Ron Dellums and Phil Angelides. Now it will put everything on the line to re-elect Arnold.
5.The San Francisco People’s Organization—SFPO was supposed to provide a mobilizing vehicle for progressive campaigns. Yet we saw little activity from the group around Prop A, which was its top electoral priority.
6. Carole Migden—Remember when State Senator Carole Migden gave up her prestigious assignment as Chair of the Budget Committee so she could work to elect Steve Westly? Migden was the state co-chair of Westly’s campaign and held a Castro Street rally for her man on Tuesday, but Angelides easily won Migden’s home base of San Francisco. As was shown after her strong endorsement of Harry Britt did not stop an easy Mark Leno Assembly victory, Migden no longer has the ability to sway San Francisco voters.
Split Decisions
1.Mayor Newsom— the mayor’s strong opposition to Prop D led many to see the campaign as a referendum on his continued popularity on the city’s Westside. If so, rumors of his unpopularity there are false, as Westside voters backed the Mayor on both Props C and Prop D.
The Mayor opposed Prop A, though he may not have gained politically by its apparent defeat. Now the initiative backers will demand he provide the $10 million annual appropriation mandated by the measure.
The Mayor did not formally oppose Prop B, but his veto of the measure caused it to go before the voters. Prop B’s win may cause Newsom to reassess his relationship with tenant-oriented voters (which may explain why he recently signed eviction protections related to condo-conversions).
Newsom was a high-profile supporter of Mike Nevin. Nevin was destroyed in San Francisco, and Mayor Newsom’s endorsement did not help.
2. Supervisor Chris Daly— Daly lost to Newsom on Prop C, defeated him on Prop B, and appears to have lost to him on Prop A. Daly knows how to run grassroots campaigns, and either through over-confidence or a lack of resources allowed Prop A—which was his idea—to proceed under the radar screen. Prop A could have galvanized voters to the polls, and unless we conclude that non-voters do not care about violence, the poorly run campaign caused its defeat.
It’s great that Daly keeps putting his adversaries on the defensive. But if a viable grassroots campaign is not going to back initiatives, they are not going to win. We saw this last November with Supervisor Ammiano’s Muni reform measure Prop D, and
Supervisor Mirkarimi’s Ethics Reform measure Prop C on the same ballot.
3. Ignacio De La Fuente—The onetime frontrunner must be shattered by his likely inability to even reach a November runoff, but his defeat must be kept in perspective. Nobody in America could defeat Ron Dellums in a race for Oakland Mayor, not even Oprah Winfrey. De la Fuente ran the best race he could run, and his campaign manager, Larry Tramutola, did as good a job as he as ever done.
The Winners
1. Fiona Ma—On the day before the election, Fiona Ma legislative aide Bill Barnes predicted that she would win by at least 15 points. I told him that a 55%-45% victory was more likely, but Barnes called it right (Richard Marquez told me two weeks earlier that Ma would destroy Reilly, and also saw Yee and Sing winning in landslides, so credit to him as well).
Reilly’s campaign convinced many that the District’s liberal voters would support her; but many of those that voted went with Ma, the candidate backed by John Burton and Barbara Boxer.
Those like myself who felt Ma ran a poor campaign were proved wrong, and she and campaign manager Tom Hsieh Jr. have been vindicated.
2. Leland Yee—I stated on Monday that Leland Yee always does better in elections than predicted. He sure proved me right. Yee outworked Mike Nevin, and won in a landslide. If Mayor Newsom wins re-election in 2007, expect Yee to run for Mayor of San Francisco in 2011.
3. Ted Gullicksen and the Tenants Movement—June 6 proved the incredible voting power of the city’s tenant’s movement. Given the atypically low and politically conservative voter turnout, Prop B’s victory was outstanding. Tenants Union leader Ted Gullicksen was never over-confident about Prop B’s chances, and organized mailers and literature drops. The corporate media will say little about the meaning of Prop B’s victory, but had it lost we would see front-page Chronicle stories on the “illusory” power of the tenants movement.
4. Organized labor–Labor brought victory for Phil Angelides, and proved once again that California’s progressive electoral agenda depends on union-led voter outreach efforts.
5. Bay Area African-Americans/Progressives—-The sweeping success of Ron Dellums in the Oakland Mayor’s race (absentee votes might still pull him under the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff) and Sandre Swanson in the Assembly race is a victory for both progressives and African-Americans. If anyone can replace resignation with hope for Oakland’s African-American youth, and can reduce the cycle of violence, high dropout rates, and despair, it is Ron Dellums.
Americans have lost faith in the power of politicians to make a difference. Ron Dellums is the very rare exception. His likely victory, and the fact that he and fellow progressive Nancy Nadel won almost 2/3 of the Oakland mayoral vote, is a dramatic tribute to the left-labor-African-American alliance that used to be known as the Dellums machine.
Dellums has mentored such progressive African-American leaders as Congressmember Barbara Lee, Alameda County Supervisor Keith Carson, and now Assemblymember-elect Sandre Swanson. Now Dellums has a chance to become a mentor to the troubled young people of Oakland, while setting a new path as Oakland’s first progressive mayor.
Dellums’ victory—either today after absentees or counted or in November— is the real story of the June 6 election. Dellums offers the best opportunity for progressives to change the projected course of Bay Area history.
Send feedback to rshaw@beyondchron.org
