Boudin’s Policies Are Unpopular
Do abortion rights require defeating the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin (Prop H)? Of course not. But that’s what the San Francisco Democratic Party told voters in a recent mailing.
It’s a sign of desperation. Every public poll has Boudin losing. Recall opponents are following the same script used by opponents of the school board recall: associate Prop H with Republicans, billionaires, racism and mass incarceration.
Voters weren’t fooled then. Associating Prop H with Republicans won’t fool voters now.
Why Not Stick to High Road?
San Francisco has a savvy electorate. When 70% of voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic city approve a school board recall, the outcome was not driven by Republican votes.
Yet Boudin backers have doubled down on associating Prop H with a Republican power grab. It’s not going to work.
When I wrote in February that the Boudin recall could “go down to the wire”—-this was two months before I concluded he was in “deep political trouble”—I saw Boudin casting himself as a “bulwark against police misconduct.” Heather Knight had just written some scathing stories on SFPD’s failure to stop crimes in progress. Knight’s account confirmed my perception of a demoralized SFPD that needed to be held accountable for its failures.
Boudin’s campaign has used the “blame the police” strategy as part of a larger campaign narrative. This narrative claims the District Attorney is wrongly blamed for specific high-profile crimes and the public’s safety concerns.
In an effort to highlight efforts to unfairly target the DA, a Boudin backer tweeted a photo after the 1906 earthquake saying it was the District Attorney’s fault—it’s all part of a plan to convince voters that Boudin should not be held accountable for San Francisco’s public safety problems.
But voters don’t seem to be buying Boudin’s “it’s not my fault” message. They are instead being swayed to vote Yes on H by Boudin’s low drug dealer conviction rate, the repeat offenders going on to commit serious crimes, and his personal insensitivity to crime victims.
San Francisco’s DA appears to care more about protecting Honduran drug dealers than the Tenderloin’s multi-racial, working-class families. It’s a strange approach for a politician who defines himself as progressive.
A Racist Recall Campaign?
Boudin backers also claim that Prop H is racist, driven by support for mass incarceration. I don’t understand this appeal. Asian-Americans are highly visible in the Yes on H campaign. Boudin appears to have already lost this constituency and accusing them of being racists won’t help him.
Many current and former Asian-American elected officials and prominent community figures publicly oppose Prop H. But these endorsements are unlikely to sway many Asian-American voters.
Running on His Record
California Governor Gavin Newsom defeated a recall by running on his record. His campaign told voters what he had done and they backed him by a 62% margin.
Boudin backers are proud of his performance. So why is he not just running harder on his accomplishments?
I’ve asked recall opponents that question and their response is: we try to promote crime stats and other substantive issues but opponents keep lying. This is a campaign where facts don’t matter. But backers of the Newsom recall routinely lied. Lying doesn’t work when voters know and support a candidate’s record.
Boudin’s core problem is that most San Francisco voters oppose how he operates as District Attorney. It’s really not more complicated. He lacks the personal sensitivity to the victims of crime and those feeling unsafe. Boudin was a longtime public defender who appears to emotionally connect best with those his office is supposed to prosecute.
That’s why every public poll has the recall winning handily. Voters know what Boudin is doing. They are recalling him based on his record.
With a week before Election Day, Chesa Boudin’s days as San Francisco District Attorney are numbered.
